Devonian time scale modeling

This project started with a simple goal: date some key Devonian ash beds with high precision U-Pb zircon geochronology to improve the Devonian time scale. Then, when it came to contextualizing those ages, we realized we could do more to refine the Devonian time scale than simply throwing out these ages for someone else to integrate into the time scale. We used a Bayesian framework to create an age-depth model for all of the Devonian, and we integrated our radioisotopic ages, radioisotopic ages from the literature, floating astrochronology Stage durations, and conodont biostratigraphy to create a robust model that allows us to determine an age and uncertainty on any biostratigraphically constrained position. We built off of Robin B. Trayler's modifiedBChron R package to make our age-depth models.

For this project we also examined how different starting assumptions will influence the resulting time scale. We found that this modeling process can “see through the noise” and will produce remarkably similar final time scales no matter which conodont biostratigraphic scale with which you start.

This is a figure of an age-depth model showing age on the x axis and scaled stratigraphic position on the y axis. There are about 30 data points and those data points are fit with a line that is close to linear but not exactly. The line model passing through the data also has a shaded region around it showing the model uncertainty.

This figure is an example of an age-depth model. There’s a lot going on in this figure (different types of ages, many lines and labels!), but the essential take-away is that we can input radioisotopic ages and anchored astrochronology stage durations paired with a depth constrained by conodont biostratigraphy to produce an age-depth model (black line) an an associated uncertainty (shaded gray region surrounding the black line) so that we can predict an age for any horizon in the Devonian.

Check out our paper to learn more:

Claire Harrigan, Mark D. Schmitz, Robin B. Trayler, D. Jeffrey Over. Recalibrating the Devonian time scale: A new method for integrating radioisotopic and astrochronologic ages in a Bayesian framework. (2021) GSA Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.1130/B36128.1.

The code for this project is available on GitHub.